In recent years, the surge of immigrants to America has surpassed the great migration wave of the late 19th century, reaching record-breaking levels and turning immigration into one of the most debated issues in the country. According to The New York Times, the average net immigration to the U.S. between 2021 and 2023 was recorded at 2.4 million people per year. This figure represents net migration, calculated by subtracting the number of people leaving the country from the total number of incoming immigrants, marking an unprecedented situation in U.S. history.
About 60% of this immigration surge comprises individuals entering the U.S. illegally, without any valid visa or residence permit. Consequently, the proportion of foreign-born individuals in the U.S. population has risen to 15.2%, surpassing the 14.8% recorded in 1890.
Causes of the U.S. Immigration Crisis
Several internal and external political factors have contributed to the immigration boom in the U.S. One key reason is the relaxation of immigration policies during the presidency of Joe Biden. In the early years of his administration, Biden adopted a more lenient stance on immigration compared to his predecessor, Donald Trump. During the 2020 presidential campaign, immigration became a central issue, with the Democratic Party emphasizing messages such as “If you wanna flee and you're fleeing oppression, you should come”
Upon taking office, Biden implemented measures to fulfill his promises, facilitating the entry of immigrants into the U.S. External factors like political instability in Haiti, the war in Ukraine, and economic uncertainty in Venezuela exacerbated the impact of these policies. However, stricter regulations implemented in June 2024 made illegal entry through the U.S.-Mexico border more difficult. Despite this, many immigrants—both legal and illegal—continue to arrive, seeking the opportunities like famous people who immigrated to the us such as Elon Musk.
Social and Economic Consequences
Many states traditionally viewed as Democratic strongholds began to shift toward supporting Republicans during the last election cycle due to the pressures caused by the immigration influx. Challenges such as housing shortages, unemployment, and rising prices have intensified debates around U.S. immigration policies. According to a Goldman Sachs report, approximately 8 million immigrants arrived in the U.S. during Biden’s term, with around 5 million entering through unauthorized channels. This influx has highlighted long-standing issues, including barriers to career advancement among skilled immigrants in the US, who often face challenges such as credential recognition, language difficulties, and exclusion from professional networks.
Although some Republicans, led by Trump, have accused immigrants of increasing crime rates, studies show that immigrants historically have lower crime rates than U.S. citizens, a trend that has continued to decline in recent years. From an economic perspective, immigrants continue to play a critical role in America's development. However, rapid population growth has strained public services and intensified competition in the labor market, fueling social tensions that were especially pronounced during the election period.
Uncertainty in Immigration Data
Accurately determining the number of immigrants arriving in the U.S. can be challenging. The federal government's reliance on various data sources contributes to this uncertainty. Although the U.S. Census Bureau conducts population surveys every ten years, factors such as immigrants avoiding the survey or sudden population shifts can affect the accuracy of the data.
Researchers studying U.S. immigration often rely on institutions like the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which compiles more comprehensive data. Private research organizations like Goldman Sachs and Oxford Economics also conduct detailed analyses to estimate net immigration. These studies have consistently concluded that the U.S. experienced an unprecedented wave of immigration between 2020 and 2023.
The Future of Immigrants in America
The potential changes in immigration policies if Donald Trump returns to the presidency remain a topic of speculation. Trump has already taken steps to significantly alter the immigration process, including attempts to abolish birthright citizenship and terminate the CBP One program. However, a federal court halted the move to end birthright citizenship before it could take effect.
Although Trump has pledged to take strict measures on immigration, the logistical and economic challenges of deporting millions of immigrants make such actions unlikely in the short term. Additionally, targeting established immigrant communities may lead to social divisions and a loss of public support for Trump in the long run.
In this uncertain climate, it is worth noting that under President Obama, an average of 400,000 people were deported annually, while this number dropped to around 300,000 during Trump’s presidency. Regardless of how policies evolve, it is now widely accepted that the surge in immigrant population growth under Biden has subsided.
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